Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University and is a former U.S. State Department Middle East analyst.

  • Trump unlikely to carry out threat to cut US aid to Palestinians, On: Sun, 14 Jan 2018

  • Tensions mount between Middle Eastern Christians and American evangelicals, On: Sun, 24 Dec 2017

  • Muted but concerned US response over Russian-Egyptian ties, On: Sun, 17 Dec 2017

  • US president’s foray a case of pure domestic politics, On: Sun, 10 Dec 2017

  • US Kurdish policy based on country-specific calculations, On: Sun, 03 Dec 2017

  • Can the US help Riyadh stand up to Iran?, On: Sun, 26 Nov 2017

  • Trump undermining his own government on foreign policy, On: Sun, 19 Nov 2017

  • Trump team’s peace process efforts fitting a pattern, On: Sun, 05 Nov 2017

  • A befuddled US military’s endgame for post-ISIS Syria, On: Sun, 29 Oct 2017

  • The US administration between Iraq and a hard place, On: Sun, 22 Oct 2017

  • Syrian Kurds, the referendum next door and US policy, On: Sun, 08 Oct 2017

  • Trump presses Netanyahu and Abbas at UN meetings but peace settlement remains elusive, On: Sun, 24 Sep 2017

  • US-Egyptian relationship heading down a slippery slope, On: Sun, 17 Sep 2017

  • Tough words and dangerous scenarios between the US and Iran, On: Sun, 10 Sep 2017

  • Renewed Bright Star exercises could be a plus for both Egypt and the US, On: Sun, 27 Aug 2017

  • Generals bring order to chaotic White House staff, On: Sun, 27 Aug 2017

  • New Cold War will hinder US-Russian cooperation in Middle East, On: Sun, 13 Aug 2017

  • Trump team helps defuse Jerusalem crisis but broader deal is far off, On: Sun, 30 Jul 2017

  • US loves Kurdish fighters but not Kurdish independence, On: Sun, 30 Jul 2017

  • Rising US-Iran tensions could lead to clashes , On: Sun, 23 Jul 2017

  • Washington’s mixed messages over Iran’s role in Syria, On: Sun, 16 Jul 2017

  • The United States and the legacy of the 1967 war, On: Sun, 11 Jun 2017

  • US likely to keep thousands of troops in Iraq post-ISIS, On: Sun, 04 Jun 2017

  • Trump to maintain hard-line position against Iran, On: Sun, 28 May 2017

  • Trump’s style is at the heart of closer US-Saudi relations, On: Sun, 21 May 2017

  • US Congress could be an impediment to an Israeli-Palestinian deal, On: Sun, 14 May 2017

  • Despite a tougher stand towards Iran on Yemen, US favours a political solution , On: Sun, 07 May 2017

  • Trump unlikely to get mired in Syrian conflict , On: Sun, 23 Apr 2017

  • Trump’s bet on Palestinian-Israeli deal likely to be mugged by reality, On: Sun, 16 Apr 2017

  • Trump administration’s message to anti-ISIS coalition sounds familiar, On: Sun, 16 Apr 2017

  • The mood in Washington about Sisi is mixed , On: Sun, 09 Apr 2017

  • Trump’s immigration ban evokes a dark period in US history, On: Sun, 12 Feb 2017

  • Trump’s comments about Iraqi oil are dangerous , On: Sun, 05 Feb 2017

  • Trump’s temptation to pursue the strongman option in Libya , On: Sun, 22 Jan 2017

  • Trump’s choice for Israel envoy likely to be resisted, On: Sun, 25 Dec 2016

  • Much of Trump’s Syria policy likely to be coordinated with Russia, On: Sun, 11 Dec 2016

  • Trump’s extreme views likely to be checked by system, On: Sun, 04 Dec 2016

  • Obama’s strategy against ISIS looks successful but comes at a high price, On: Sun, 27 Nov 2016

  • Trump’s victory likely to improve US-Egyptian ties , On: Sun, 20 Nov 2016

  • Trump unlikely to carry out threat to cut US aid to Palestinians

    Many Israeli security officials said that a cut-off of US funds for the Palestinians would do more harm than good.

    Brewing backlash. A worker takes a box containing sanitation kits and soap provided by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Gaza City. (AFP)

    2018/01/14 Issue: 139 Page: 18

    Despite threatening to cut aid to the Palestin­ians in response to their sharp criticism of his decision on Jerusalem, US Presi­dent Donald Trump may not carry through with it because of op­position from an unlikely source: Israel.

    Trump’s style as a businessman was to hit back hard whenever he was challenged. In practice, this meant filing counter lawsuits whenever someone sued him and relentlessly attacking those stand­ing in his way.

    He has taken this practice to the international political arena, most notably after UN Security Council and UN General Assembly resolu­tions that condemned his decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. He and US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley threatened to cut aid to countries that voted against the US decision — the overwhelming majority of countries in the world.

    Trump, however, had special ire against the Palestinians, who not only criticised his decision on Je­rusalem but declared that, because of it, Washington could no longer be considered an honest broker in the peace process.

    Some Trump administration officials said they expected a “cooling off” period in the peace process following the Jerusalem decision but seemed surprised by the ferocity of the criticism.

    Long-time adviser to the Pal­estinian Authority (PA) and PLO Secretary-General Saeb Erekat stated: “So, Mr Trump, your art of the deal. What’s left to negotiate? You are moving from negotiat­ing to dictating and then you are threatening us if we don’t accept your dictations.”

    Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for PA President Mahmoud Ab­bas, said: “Jerusalem and its holy places are not for sale, not with gold nor silver.”

    What added fuel to the fire was that not only was Trump’s decision on Jerusalem praised by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netan­yahu and his right-wing cabinet but a law was passed that would make any future Israeli decision on Jerusalem subject to a supermajor­ity (80 votes out of 120) in parlia­ment. The measure allowed for the reconfiguration of the boundaries of Jerusalem to possibly exclude Palestinian neighbourhoods.

    In response to Palestinian anger, Trump threatened in a Tweet: “We pay the Palestinians millions of dollars a year and get no respect. With the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?”

    The amount of US aid to the Palestinians was about $650 mil­lion in 2016, including funding of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), Palestinian administra­tion and security forces and US Agency for International Devel­opment (USAID) projects. While the amount pales in comparison to the more than $3 billion the United States gives Israel annu­ally, Trump’s tweet stirred debate within Israel itself.

    Many Israeli security officials said that a cut-off of US funds for the Palestinians would do more harm than good because it would weaken the PA, giving extremists a victory. An unidentified Israeli security official told the Washing­ton Post that cutting US aid would “end up making the Palestinian leadership even weaker” and added that, if the Palestinian Authority collapses, “then there really would be no one to talk to or rely upon.”

    While some Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, want the United States to stop funding UNRWA, others said this would result in Israel having to pick up the very costly tab for Palestinian humanitarian assistance. While UNRWA has come under criticism from right-wing Israelis for alleg­edly allowing some of its schools in Gaza to be used by Hamas, many Israeli security officials said UNRWA schools in Gaza act as a counter-balance to the group.

    Because of these pitfalls, Israeli analyst Moshe Maoz warned that, if the United States cuts aid to the Palestinians, “it would be cata­strophic.” Israeli opposition politi­cian Tzipi Livni said the Israeli government should “explain to [Trump] what the real Israel inter­est is.”

    Trump’s Jerusalem decision and the anti-US backlash among Palestinians are jeopardising US programmes in the West Bank. Palestinian NGOs are under public pressure not to participate in US­AID projects and many are refusing to meet with US project managers. One Palestinian NGO leader ac­knowledged to the Guardian that his organisation could no longer cooperate with the US aid agency because it “puts us in an awkward position.”

    Although Trump is unlikely to reverse his Jerusalem decision, as he is loath to admit he made a mis­take, he may not go forward with his threat to cut aid to the Palestin­ians given the myriad of problems it would entail. Because the US Congress has the ultimate say on foreign aid and many of its mem­bers are sensitive to the concerns of Israeli security officials, Trump may not be able to cut the aid even if he wants to.

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