Ideology and objectives clash at Deir ez-Zor

Conflicting loyalties. A Syrian boy holds the Iranian flag as a truck carrying aid provided by Iran arrives in the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor, last September. (AFP)


2017/10/15 Issue: 127 Page: 12


The Arab Weekly
Simon Speakman Cordall



Tunis- As the Syrian regime and its allies wrestle with the Islamic State (ISIS) for control of the oil-rich Deir ez-Zor governorate more than the future of the territory is at stake.

For the elite forces of the Syrian Army, the assault on one of ISIS’s last remaining redoubts at Mayadin, 40km south-east of the city of Deir ez-Zor, stands as one of the conflict’s last opportunities to reassert them­selves as a significant counter to ISIS’s military force.

However, heavy casualties among the Syrian Army and its allies, plus the ominous proximity between the Damascus regime and the US-sponsored Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) threaten to escalate the conflict or limit the regime’s freedom to act. Compounding the challenges are the competing ob­jectives of the Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah fighters.

The stakes are high. The lucrative oil fields of Deir ez-Zor have done much to finance ISIS’s insurgency since they fell to the group in 2014. The group’s positions beyond Deir ez-Zor, at Abu Kamal and along the Euphrates Valley, offer ISIS the ability to protect those fields and a corridor directly into Iraq.

Though the Syrian Army is taking the lead in the attack on Mayadin, support appears to be coming from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with Russia providing aerial support and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) strategy.

That the Shia forces seem to be holding back is significant. After years under various Sunni rebel oc­cupiers, the advance into the region of the Shia allies is likely to prove un­welcome in an area Nicholas Heras, the Middle East security fellow at the Centre for a New American Secu­rity, termed, a “resistance society.”

Though counterattacks have dogged the regime’s advance, ISIS’s foreign fighters have proven elu­sive. “It’s clear that ISIS has retained some kind of Praetorian Guard of foreign fighters,” Heras said in a tel­ephone interview.

“However, so far what we’ve been seeing is mostly local militias co-opted by the group. ISIS has yet to commit its full foreign contingent and it’s not clear if it will. It may just have them melt away and fight else­where.”

The strategic importance of the re­gion is lost on no one. Control of Deir ez-Zor governorate and the Euphra­tes Valley would give its occupier a defining voice in the conduct of the war and its settlement.

“This is about beating the US to the border and they’ll burn the Euphra­tes to do that,” Heras said. “If [Syr­ian President Bashar] Assad makes serious gains at Deir ez-Zor, he can use the territory to train and sta­tion any militias there that he likes.” That would provide Damascus a base from which to project strength through much of eastern Syria.

Despite the proximity of the SDF and regime forces at Deir ez-Zor, it is unclear if either Assad or his al­lies are prepared to confront the US-sponsored force directly.

Moreover, Iran’s commitment to the preservation of the Assad re­gime, while certain in Damascus and western Syria, diminishes the farther it is from the capital.

“I’m not sure I really buy this idea of a land bridge,” Heras said, referring to the theory of Tehran’s plan for a corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean. “There are satel­lites and surveillance along the whole route. Anything they want can already be landed at Damascus airport. Why do you need a land route?”

Though a land route may not be an overriding priority for Tehran, securing western Syria remains a key objective.

“Iran really isn’t that bothered about Syria, just western Syria.” Heras said, “Western Syria is really tied into the Iranian regime’s per­ception of what it needs to achieve in Syria. Eastern Syria is about checking the US’s involvement in the war. Western Syria is about creating a clear space where it and its militias can operate and apply pressure on Israel.”


Simon Speakman Cordall is a section editor with The Arab Weekly.


As Printed
MENA Now
Editors' Picks

The Arab Weekly Newspaper reaches Western & Arabic audience that are influential as well as being affluent.

From Europe to the Middle East,and North America, The Arab Weekly talks to opinion formers and influential figures, providing insight and comment on national, international and regional news through the focus of Arabic countries and community.

Published by Al Arab Publishing House

Publisher and Group Executive Editor: Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD

Editor-in-Chief: Oussama Romdhani

Managing Editor: Iman Zayat

Deputy Managing Editor and Online Editor: Mamoon Alabbasi

Senior Editor: John Hendel

Chief Copy Editor: Richard Pretorius

Copy Editor: Stephen Quillen

Analysis Section Editor: Ed Blanche

East/West Section Editor: Mark Habeeb

Gulf Section Editor: Mohammed Alkhereiji

Society and Travel Sections Editor: Samar Kadi

Syria and Lebanon Sections Editor: Simon Speakman Cordall

Contributing Editor: Rashmee Roshan Lall

Senior Correspondents: Mahmud el-Shafey (London) & Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis)

Regular Columnists

Claude Salhani

Yavuz Baydar

Correspondents

Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca)

Dunia El-Zobaidi (London)

Roua Khlifi (Tunis)

Thomas Seibert (Washington)

Chief Designer: Marwen Hmedi

Designers

Ibrahim Ben Bechir

Hanen Jebali

Published by Al Arab Publishing House

Contact editor at:editor@thearabweekly.com

Subscription & Advertising: Ads@alarab.co.uk

Tel 020 3667 7249

Mohamed Al Mufti

Marketing & Advertising Manager

Tel (Main) +44 20 6702 3999

Direct: +44 20 8742 9262

www.alarab.co.uk

Al Arab Publishing House

Kensington Centre

177-179 Hammersmith Road

London W6 8BS , UK

Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999

Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778

Follow Us
© The Arab Weekly, All rights reserved